Using Temperature as a Predictor to Calculate Emergence Date

Abstract

By Noah Bruce, Environmental Studies

Advisor: Stephen Matter

Abstract: As climate change continues to show increasingly detrimental effects to the Earth's ecosystems, it has become more important to try to predict how organisms will be affected. By studying insects and other 'r' selected species, we are able to observe how organisms adapt on a relatively short time scale. Insects, in particular, are ectothermic, which means their growth is primarily dependent on external temperatures. The goal of my research project is to create an ecological model to predict when Parnassius smintheus emerges in its natural habitat. Using temperature data collected by the department of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) at the Nakiska Ridgetop weather station, alongside emergence dates of the butterflies collected by Dr. Stephen Matter, I was able to create a model in R Studio that is able to predict the emergence date of the insects for any given year.